Amanda Knox Has a 91.5% Chance of Being Set Free

I think Amanda Knox has a 91.5% chance of being set free this month when her appeal is concluded.  That is my expert opinion as a practicing criminal lawyer who has followed this case closely. In other words it is just a wild-ass guess.  But as everyone just powerlessly sits and wait, this “percent chance” question seems to be what everyone is asking.  I have seen this “percent chances” question asked in blog forums and also in the comment section of Murder in Italy‘s Facebook page yesterday. Ultimately, all any lawyer can do is try his or her best to convince the judge or jury.  There are no assurances of outcomes. Oftentimes, people will study the slightest thing judges or juries do in order to divine what result will be reached.

Amanda Knox meets with her lawyer, Luciano Ghirga. Her appeal is going well, and closing arguments begin on September 23rd.

For example, it was generally viewed as a good sign when Judge Pratillo Hellman denied the prosecution’s request to have the DNA re-tested again.  However, I suppose one could interpret this as meaning the judge believed the prosecutor’s case was sufficient without the DNA, and wished to spare the prosecution the trouble and delay.  I have a feeling that when closing arguments begin on September 23rd, the lawyers will pretty much feel that they have made many of their points already.

One of the other things I wonder about is what sort of life Amanda Knox will have if she is freed and returned home.  Surely that would be a good day to look forward to, but Mignini’s injustice has already done irreparable harm to Amanda and her family.  My experience has been that individuals cleared of serious allegations experience a short “high” upon their release, but later dwell bitterly on their mistreatment when they reflect on time lost, legal bills, and the torment on their family members.  In my opinion no sort of court victory will be complete without Giuliano Mignini being held to account and without reform in the Italian criminal justice system.  While the press in the U.S. has been more fair to Knox, Americans too can be cruel.  Mignini’s attacks and half-truths have reached our shores as well, and not just by the Lifetime T.V. network.  It seems Giuliano Mignini should face separate criminal charges for how he has handled the Amanda Knox case.  My expert opinion is that upon Knox’s acquittal, Mignini has a 96.2% chance of never practicing law again.

What do you think about the latest developments in this case?

12 Responses to “Amanda Knox Has a 91.5% Chance of Being Set Free”

  • I have complete faith that she (and he) will be out! I will do anything I can to help exonerate them. 🙂

  • Paul Smyth:

    I would be very surprised if Hellmann does not acquit. Everything seems headed that way. He seems very impatient with prosecution nonsense. More importantly, the appeals process has seen everything go the defendants’ way. We often forget that in April 2010 the defense filed some 450 pages of point-by-point rebuttal of the prosecution case. Judge Hellmann read these filing before the formal court hearings began and his opening remarks were widely interpreted as indicating that he had doubts about the initial conviction. Everything that has happened since then has been a disaster for the prosecution.

    I am less confident that Mignini will never practice law again. The Italian system seems set up to protect judges at all costs. Mignini has used the full power of the state to crush dozens of innocent people in the past. I doubt Amanda and Raffaele will be his last victims. We have talked in the past about the “satellite” trials against Amanda, her parents, her lawyers, journalists, etc. The appeals court proceedings have brought a new thing: witnesses for the are being investigated for lying! Even Tagliabracci, the well known geneticist testifying for the defense, was threatened by Comodi the other day. It almost defies belief.

  • I hope that Raf and Amanda are freed and soon! And that Mignini spends 4 years of his pathetic life behind bars!!!!

  • seattle mother:

    Are there no International Laws against extortion of American citizens abroad? As clearly that is what this is, masquerading as a surreal court case, drama on the world stage. Delusional. Where is the psych eval for Mignini? Where is the DNA testing of the semen stain under Meredith’s body? Why was that of all things, NOT tested? Who really is Rudy Guede, what has he been up to in Milan & Perugia & why was he not prosecuted for his previous known crimes, then handled w/ kid gloves, and every attempt made to keep him out of the equation. His sentence cut in half and Mignini & his enablers rant about increasing their sentences to life. What is all the hand waving, smoke and mirrors about? What are they hiding besides very strange & repressed thoughts, ideas of their own on sex & the occult. Rather far outside the Italian Catholic holiness or not. What is the latest sword rattling I read it seems, from Italian sources, of course, that maybe Raffaele is cleared of the crime but not Amanda? Did I misread that? A new strategy? Or one planned all along? One word ~ evil. Finally, I cannot believe I ever considered voting for Hillary Clinton for President. I detest the sight of her now, she of all people to turn her back on a young American woman being interrogated with no lawyer present, in a foreign country, then falsely imprisoned, at first in solitary confinement! Her crime? Naivete.

  • Steve Graham:

    Yeah, lets see how he does on a psych eval. I would like to see his diary too.

  • Despite their offering proof of innocence, the three Duke lacrosse players are still suspected of having done something wrong in some quarters. I have heard seemingly intelligent people say, “Something must have happened in that bathroom.” The DNA evidence alone belies their involvement, but Reade Seligmann’s alibi is about as good as it gets, and Collin Finnerty’s alibi is only a half-step behind. Amanda and Raffaele cannot offer ironclad evidence of innocence, although the issue with respect to stomach contents is very strong. Therefore, they will probably have to deal with a larger contingent of people who will always think that they are guilty. The reputational harm done to people who are accused (and in some cases convicted) on the basis of weak evidence is difficult to overestimate, in my opinion. The West Memphis Three case is another example.

  • David Anderson:

    I am a retired physician, I now live in Umbria, and have studied this case in depth mainly since the end of the first trial. I am convinced that the Public Prosecutor is what is defined as a ‘successful’ primary psychopath (that is to say one not yet caught behind bars), who has abused his position (as only psychopaths can) to create a psychopathic polizio-judicial support system in Perugia. This is done by what one might term unnatural selection; controlling the hiring and firing of others under his ‘wing’ over the years to create a highly pathological legal state within a state. Plus – exploiting all the weaknesses of Italy’s system, which is still essentially a hang-over from the inquisition.

    Primary psychopaths (sometimes referred to as sociopaths) lack empathy and conscience, probably because of a defect in a part of the brain called the amygdala. They live under what Hervey Cleckley called the ‘Mask of Sanity’; though they appear human, they function as androids, engaging in their own specific version of targeted aggression. The staggering estimate of experts is that one in 25 people is born with such a defect and maybe 1 in 100 with it in extreme form.

    The main lesson of history is that we all need to be on the watch-out for psychopaths, and nip them in the bud early. What better position for a primary psychopath than to be the Public Prosecutor of what functions as a small nation-state?

    • Steve Graham:

      Thanks for visiting my blog. This comment is very interesting, and I will look more into this. I wonder what prosecuting attorneys in the U.S. might fit this description.

  • the procescutor should be jailed.
    the cop’s involved should be jailed.
    please remember,Italian people hate the corruption.
    we need to embrase Italy to fight the corruption and this will help us in U.S.
    we should embrase Italy first by making Tyrol,Italy off limits to all corruption. secondly,the entire north of Italy is made off limits to all of corruption. It is our duty as a superpower and the good Italian people are truly our friends. people like the prosecutor are not our friends. we must help Italy to investigate police corruption in Brixen,Tyrol,Italy and Bolzano first. we can do this we must. I think Amanda knox will be set free tomorrow.

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Steve Graham is a criminal defense lawyer, and he splits his time between Spokane and Seattle, Washington. Visit his website by clicking:
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